It could be a close race in West Bengal, with a slight advantage for the BJP over Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts. If the numbers are right, up to 64 seats could be crucial in West Bengal, where the margin is likely less than 2 percent.
On the flip side, BJP will keep Assam, Pinarayi Vijayan will buck the anti-incumbency trend in Kerala, while DMK will return to power in Tamil Nadu, the India Today-Axis My India forecast. In the Union Territory (UT) of Puducherry, the NDA will win if predictions prove correct. The results of the general election in the four states and one UT will be announced on May 2nd.
TIGHT RACE IN BENGAL, LIGHT EDGE FOR BJP: EXIT POLL
The parliamentary elections in West Bengal in 2021 could be for everyone. This is what the India Today-Axis My India exit survey predicted.
Of the 292 seats that went to vote, Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee was TMC is likely to win 130-156 seats while the BJP could be a step ahead with 134-160 seats.
India Today DIU infographic
The TMC will have 44 percent of the vote and the BJP 43 percent, as forecast by India Today-Axis My India. Interestingly, there are 64 seats in tough fights where the margin is less than 2 percent. The sample size for the Bengal Exit survey was 63,610 in 292 seats.
End survey highlights for Bengal:
- A 50-50 pro and anti-incumbency for the TMC government.
- Muslim voters across the state voted for TMC.
- Even in the Malda-Murshidabad region, there is no major division of Muslim voices.
- BJP conquers the Jalpaiguri region with almost all 27 seats.
- BJP has improved its seat count in all regions after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but there are big differences in the Presidency and Bardhaman regions.
- TMC improves its balance sheet in the Malda region from 24 seats in 2019 to 31 seats in our exit survey.
BJP CAN RETURN IN ASSAM
The India Today-Axis My India Survey For Assam Forecasts 75-85 meeting seats for the BJP-led alliance (including AGP and UPPL)followed by the congressional-led coalition (including AIUDF and BPF) with 40-50 seats and 1-4 for other parties. Assam has 126 seats.
#IndiaTodayExitPoll | Methodology for #Assam: How were the calculations done? @rahulkanwal explained.
Who is likely to win? #Assam? # Elections2021 | @sardesairajdeep pic.twitter.com/hhYIK2Id6g– IndiaToday (@IndiaToday) April 29, 2021
The Exit poll predicts 48 percent of the vote for the BJP-led alliance, 40 percent for the congressional coalition, and 12 percent for others. The India Today-Axis My India Exit survey sample size for Assam was 27,189.
End survey highlights for Assam:
- Good tenure for the NDA government and especially for the Narendra Modi government at the center.
- The congress-led alliance is doing better in Muslim-dominated regions of the Barak Valley and lower Assam.
- The NDA plans to sweep three more regions: Central, North and Upper Assam.
KERALA: PINARAYI VIJAYAN CAN BECOME ANTI-INCUMBENCY TREND AS CM RETURNS?
The left led LDF could win 104-120 seats in Kerala and the Congressional-led UDF may get 20-36 seatspredicts the India Today-Axis My India Exit survey. This means that Pinarayi Vijayan may be bucking the anti-incumbency trend of returning as prime minister.
#IndiaTodayExitPoll | Who will win? #Kerala? Here are the numbers and what panelists think about them.
(Sandeep Shastri, @drshamamohd, @ TMVRaghav)# Elections2021 | @rahulkanwal & @sardesairajdeep pic.twitter.com/j4HDpFid13– IndiaToday (@IndiaToday) April 29, 2021
According to the Exit poll, the LDF will have 47 percent of the vote, the UDF 38 percent, the NDA 12 percent and that of other parties 3 percent. The India Today-Axis My India Exit survey sample size for Kerala was 28,124. Voters from all districts were interviewed.
End survey highlights for Kerala:
- Strong pro-incumbency in favor of the LDF government.
- CM Pinarayi Vijayan is particularly popular with young people and women for his first Covid-19 wave management.
- Pinarayi Vijayan can benefit from very popular welfare systems.
- LDF receives 15 percent more votes than UDF among female voters.
- LDF appears to contain the UDF’s Muslim electoral bank while gaining sizeable Hindu votes.
TAMIL NADU: THE LONG WAIT FROM DMKS MK STALIN TO BE CM CAN END
MK Stalin’s DMK-led alliance (including Congress, Left, VCK and IUML) can sweeping Tamil Nadu with 175-195 seats, India Today-Axis My India Exit poll predicts.
The AIADMK-led alliance of CM Edappadi K. Palaniswami (including PMK and BJP) may only have 38-54 seats, according to the forecast of the initial poll. Tamil Nadu has 234 meeting seats.
India Today DIU infographic
According to the Exit survey, the DMK-led alliance’s share of the vote is 48 percent, followed by 35 percent for the AIADMK-led coalition, 3 percent for the AMMK and 4 percent for Kamal Haasan’s MNM. The sample size was 34,187 in all seats.
End survey highlights for Tamil Nadu:
- Very strong anti-tenure against the AIADMK government.
- The people of Tamil Nadu urgently want to change, as is tradition.
- Parties such as MNM, AMMK and NTK, who are taking part in the general election for the first time, must not impair the prospect of a DMK alliance.
- The poor and lower classes seem to be connected to the DMK, the women’s and Vaniyar communities to the AIADMK.
NDA WINS PUDUCHERRY, SAYS EXIT POLL
The India Today-Axis My India Exit survey predicts a Victory for the NDA consisting of AINRC, BJP and AIADMK in Puducherry with 20-24 seats. This could mean that AINRC boss N Rangaswamy could become the next prime minister of the Union territory.
The UPA of Congress and DMK will win 6-10 seats in Puducherry, the Exit poll predicts.
According to the India Today-Axis My India poll, the NDA will have 52 percent of the vote in Pondicherry, followed by the UPA with 37 percent and others with 11 percent. The sample size was 3,838 across 30 seats.
End survey highlights for Puducherry:
- Very strong anti-tenure against the previous Congressional administration.
- All along the way, N Rangaswamy from the NR Congress enjoyed the full support of the people across the Union.
- The strike rate of the NR Congress is far better than that of other alliance partners, BJP and AIADMK.
- DMK’s strike rate is far better than that of Congress.
- N. Rangaswamy is CM’s preferred choice with a 49 percent popularity among voters.
ABOUT THE INDIA TODAY-AXIS-MY-INDIA EXIT POLL
A total of 824 constituencies had voted, and 18.68 crore voters had to vote in 2.7 lakh polling stations in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry.
India Today-Axis-My-India’s record speaks for itself. Of all previous elections in India between 2013 and 2020, India Today-Axis My India polls have provided the most definitive predictions 91 percent of the time, following the poll.
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