An elderly patient comes for admission to a hospital with an oxygen bottle. The number of new infections in the country has reached an average of 3.5 lakh. (Photo: PTI)
India has been grappling with an unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases in the past few weeks, with the number of new infections in the country averaging 3.5 lakh. In an exclusive interaction with India Today, experts give us realistic expectations about where we stand in the fight against Covid.
Global experts specializing in modeling, biostatistics, and experts dealing with India Covid numbers were very specific to our questions and concerns.
The show answers some of the most important questions
- Have we reached the climax?
- Are we still a little way from the summit?
- Is the summit behind us?
Experts speak
Professor M Vidyasagar, head of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee
If you look at the nation as a whole, let’s say we see the end of the optics and see a decline by the end of this week. But if we as a nation want to test with all the cumulative numbers, we are either at the peak or very close.
The second wave essentially started in Maharashtra. So if we look at the map of India we will understand that states that are farthest away will reach their cases the fastest and will be the slowest to regress. Different states have different trajectories.
When asked if they predicted the second wave, the professor said what they predicted was the timing and top of the second wave, but we couldn’t estimate the height of the second wave. We thought the second wave would peak at 1.2 laughs.
Dr. Ashish K. Jha, Dean of Brown University School of Public Health
It is entirely possible that Covid cases in India will peak now or later this week. It will vary from state to state. If we look at Maharashtra we will understand that it has gone around the corner, but if we look at West Bengal and places further afield we will understand that they might peak soon.
While we will see a peak in May, we will definitely see a very slow decline as so many states will peak this month. I think we will come into June with very high numbers. I don’t think the case numbers will go down as quickly as they have gone up. However, it depends on how good the policy is.
When a policy is very effective at bringing infections under control, the numbers drop quickly. Or, as in many countries, the cases gradually recede, but then slowly meander over many months. I am not very confident that there will be a dramatic drop in cases. Hopefully we’ll hit 1 lakh sometime in June.
"No one country can get out of this pandemic on its own," Dr. Ashish K Jha (Dean, Brown University School of Public Health) #Newstrack #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/TbDZbxo2uX
— Rahul Kanwal (@rahulkanwal) May 4, 2021
Gautam Menon, Professor of Biophysics at Ashoka University.
I think we won’t really know the level of testing that we currently have. There are many cases that will not be tested. We may see a turnaround by mid-May. I have set a wider processing time. I think it could be the first week or the second.
When will we see #COVID19 peak? Prof. Gautam Menon responds #Newstrack pic.twitter.com/fZLpO6gvaR
— Rahul Kanwal (@rahulkanwal) May 4, 2021
Dr. Shahid Jameel, virologist
Unless we report cases and deaths on a daily basis, it is very difficult to build an accurate model and decide the peak and the decline. If deaths are undercounted, the dates need to be changed. I think that the downward curve is more likely to be lengthened. It will take longer and be stretched over a longer period of time.
Any model formulated by the state does not take into account the behavior of the population. Our behavior is very difficult to predict. I think the country should reduce indoor and outdoor activities.
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