80% of Mumbai already exposed to virus, third wave likely to be less severe: TIFR report

The third wave of Covid-19 is likely to be less severe in Mumbai than the second wave, as around 80 percent of the city’s residents have already been exposed to the virus, according to a report by the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR). .

The report suggests that even with a third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, the risk will be lower due to increased herd immunity among Mumbaikars.

However, the TIFR report also takes into account some pessimistic scenarios.

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Sandeep Juneja, Dean of the TIFR School of Technology and Computer Science, said: “As the number of Covid reinfections increases, the number of cases will increase. Since the pandemic in India was almost 17 months ago and people who were infected in the first wave in 2020 could be vulnerable again due to falling antibody levels. “

Dr. However, Juneja said vaccinating 20 percent of the city’s residents who have not yet been exposed to the virus will help keep track of cases of re-infection.

The report also considered other scenarios, including 10 percent reinfections in 80 percent of those recovered or when a new variant is found that is 50 percent more virulent than the Delta variant. The report also takes into account other factors that can adversely affect residents, such as poor effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines or opening the city up to 60 percent but with low compliance with Covid-fair behavior.

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The TIFR report noted that the likely third wave will not peak beyond the second wave, despite the negative factors mentioned above.

“If the reinfections are mild, there are no new variants and the vaccination coverage is high, the third will be barely visible,” adds Dr. Juneja added.

SECOND WAVE PEAK IN MUMBAI BELOW DELHI, BENGALURU

The report indicates that Mumbai saw the highest one-day rise of 11,202 coronavirus patients during the second wave. Delhi and Bengaluru, on the other hand, recorded a high of 28,000 Covid-19 cases and 25,000 Covid-19 cases, respectively.

The TIFR report found that Mumbai’s peak was lower compared to Delhi and Bengaluru due to higher exposure to the virus.

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