How Afghanistan has once again become a happy hunting ground for Taliban

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Secret services in the US believe in the Afghan government could collapse in just six months after the complete withdrawal of American troops from the country.

At a time when the Taliban are sweeping the northern provinces, capturing districts one by one, and collecting U.S.-supplied weapons and equipment from soldiers killed and captured, such an assessment is sure to raise concerns among key players in the international community and Afghanistan’s neighbors .

The Taliban have made steady progress since the US and Allied forces began withdrawing from Afghanistan on May 1. The US has a deadline after which all troops will be released by September 11th, September 20ththe Anniversary of the 11th attacks. This could upset the balance of power not only within Afghanistan but also across Asia. At the moment, the Afghan government can only claim total control over its capital, Kabul, and some neighboring districts.

This author spoke to two counterterrorism experts to understand the changing dynamics of the region, Faran Jeffery, Deputy Director and Head of South Asia Department of Terrorism at ITCT (Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism) and Abdul Basit, Associate Research Fellow at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Mapping of the TALIBAN ADVANCE

Long before the Taliban advanced towards Kabul, donations for them increased in Balochistan and other border areas of Pakistan. According to Reports, Afghan Taliban fighters stay with miners in the nearby mountains and come to the bazaar area every Friday to solicit 5,000-10,000 Pakistani rupees (2,500-5,000 INR) from shopkeepers.

Heavy fighting has been reported in Kandahar, Baghlan and Kunduz and thousands of families have fled these areas. The Taliban have also captured a major border crossing with Tajikistan and now claim to control 40 percent, or 157, of Afghanistan’s 398 counties.

Fighting broke out in a further 157 districts, while government rule was limited to just 84 districts, mainly in central Afghanistan. However, there is no concrete way to check such numbers, as many areas frequently switch between the Taliban and the Afghan armed forces. But they also reveal a frightening truth that nearly a third of the Afghan population now lives under Taliban rule.

Abdul Basit says that while the Taliban are advancing, much of the news is currently propagandistic. He says news of Afghan troops reclaiming lost land is not getting enough coverage.

THE TALIBAN STRATEGY

The Taliban could launch major attacks after the US troops are fully withdrawn. “Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the Taliban emir has not yet ordered provincial capitals to be taken, but his testimony suggests that this could change once the US military withdrawal is fully completed,” said Farhan Jeffery.

Basit added: “The Taliban are expanding the Afghan armed forces and looking for weaknesses in their defenses, leading to the withdrawal of Afghan armed forces from certain districts to reinforce their defenses. So far the Taliban have not tried to take a big city, but they are trying to weaken the Afghan armed forces. “

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and members of his government have repeatedly called on the Taliban to declare a nationwide ceasefire. On the contrary, attacks across the country have actually increased. The lack of NATO air support to Afghan forces has encouraged the Taliban to carry out further attacks.

Even if the Taliban have conquered several districts in Afghanistan, a total victory is currently very unlikely. However, they are strong in the game of optics. On many occasions, Afghan forces are quickly recapturing key regions, but the Taliban’s advances have received increasing media attention. The Taliban have special social media accounts that stream real-time visuals of newly conquered territories.

On the other hand, internal struggles and a lack of coordination between different wings of the Afghan government have made things worse for Kabul.

THE ISLAMIC STATE FACTOR

In addition to the Taliban, the province of Khorasan Islamic State (ISKP) has been trying to expand its influence for some time. Smaller armed outfits and some old warlords also want their share of the cake.

Jeffery says: “In a recent edition of the al-Naba newsletter, ISIS made it very clear that its war in Afghanistan will continue even after the US troops have withdrawn completely. The ISKP recently alleged multiple attacks on power poles in Afghanistan as part of their “economic war” in the country. It also carried out an attack on Afghan soldiers in Nangarhar during a battle between government forces and the Taliban. “

“The ISKP has also launched attacks against the Taliban and its offensives are expected to intensify in the coming months. Similarly, there are other terrorist groups, from Al-Qaeda to anti-Chinese Uyghurs, who would all try to take advantage of the chaos in the country, ”added Jeffery.

Basit agreed that the ISKP could only be a smaller force at the moment, as it only has about 3,000 fighters, which is not enough to make significant advances. However, he warns that IS-inspired radicals could find refuge in regions of Afghanistan. It is important to note that many Indian ISIS sympathizers have managed to join the ISKP in the remote hills of Afghanistan.

HOW AFGHAN FORCES ARE COMING TO THE THREAT

Afghan commandos, trained and equipped by US and NATO troops, are fighting the Taliban. They are doing their best and have carried out multiple night attacks in the past two months.

In parallel, the concerned government has launched a “national mobilization program” to arm local volunteers to fight the Taliban. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani met former anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban leaders and warlords to rally for a united front. This is viewed as a blatant failure of the Afghan government and its over-reliance on US and NATO forces.

Afghan troops surrendered to the Taliban in several places. Jeffery attributes it to three problems.

First, the Afghan government’s war strategy. “The Afghan government’s war strategy so far has been to leave districts, avoid many casualties and focus on defending the provincial capitals,” he says.

Second, the low morale of the armed forces due to the US withdrawal.

And third, the controversial decision to arm civilians and warlords. “The government’s dependence on militias has consistently backfired, as many of these militias change their loyalty very easily. The most recent massacre of Special Forces soldiers in Faryab occurred because the government had announced ahead of time that it would retake the Dawlatabad district. The troops landing there had therefore not expected to be greeted by dozens of heavily armed Taliban fighters. Such mistakes have created unnecessary losses that could have been avoided, ”Jeffery said.

The resurgence of the Taliban has already suffered thousands of civilians. Last month, at least 68 people were killed in an explosion in front of a girls’ school in Kabul, most of them young girls between the ages of 11 and 15. The Taliban have also attacked medical workers who are administering Covid vaccines. The ISKP has also carried out attacks in its areas of influence.

“The Taliban are waging a kind of warfare that is about conquering as much territory as possible in order to have better bargaining power when they finally get to negotiating with the Afghan government or the international community,” said Basit.

DID THE DOHA PEACE DEAL GO WRONG?

The US wants to set up a new base for its ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) operations in one of the neighboring countries. Given their existing base and proximity to Taliban hideouts, Pakistan might be the best option. However, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said he would “absolutely not” allow the US to establish bases. Other options include moving to Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. However, the strong Russian influence in these regions can be daunting.

In February last year, the US signed a peace agreement with the Taliban in Doha. “The deal gave the Taliban more than anyone could have imagined. It encouraged the Taliban and they saw it as a victory, “Jeffery said, adding that the US is having a hard time justifying its people’s continued military presence in Afghanistan.

Basit says that even if the US left Afghanistan after five years, the situation would still be the same as it is today. “America would always go. It was a question of when and not if, ”he said.

HOW DO PAKISTAN FIT, INDIA?

Experts believe that Pakistan is in a difficult situation. “If the Taliban come to power, Pakistan’s little remaining influence will be at risk. The Taliban will move their leaders and families to Afghanistan, and they would develop relationships with other countries, including India, largely on their own terms. If Afghanistan sinks into civil war, Pakistan must also expect refugees to spill over, ”says Jeffery.

On the other hand, Basit believes that strong Taliban in Afghanistan will strengthen terror groups in Pakistan and PoK. An Afghan government controlled by the Taliban will also give Pakistan great strategic depth and help push India away from Afghanistan, he says.

India, which has played a key role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, has called for a United Nations-led “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen whether India will play a direct role in inhibiting the Taliban’s resurgence, as its growing influence could encourage other terrorist groups affiliated with it. If certain reports are to be believed, India has already started back-channel negotiations with the Taliban.

India has many investments and projects underway across Afghanistan. These include the construction of the Salma Dam and the recently announced Shahtoot Dam in Kabul. The US exit could also offer China a valuable opportunity to expand its Belt and Road Initiative to regions of Afghanistan. China is Afghanistan’s largest foreign investor.

“India will try to fill the vacuum left by the US. America sees India as its most important partner in the region and its policy has always been to encourage India to play a bigger role in Afghanistan, ”Jeffery said.

Basit added that the Taliban might prefer Pakistan to India because of its high reliance on Islamabad. “Most of the family members of Taliban fighters remain in Pakistan. The Taliban use Pakistani facilities like hospitals and even use Pakistani passports to travel abroad. So of course they would prefer Pakistan to India, ”he said.

(The author is a Singapore-based open source intelligence analyst)




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