Maharashtra and Kerala continue to contribute a lion’s share to India’s reduced Covid-19 cases. While Maharashtra stayed one of the hardest hit states from the start of the pandemic, Kerala had managed to control the outbreak fairly well during the first wave, only for cases to skyrocket in recent months.
Health experts and officials in Maharashtra have blamed the high population density, mobility and mass disregard for Covid norms for the monumental spread of the infection. Rapid transmission of the virus, partly due to the seasonal flu in some regions and partly due to virus mutations, did not help either. In May, Maharashtra contributed an eighth of the total Covid cases in India and a quarter of the deaths.
On the other hand, high tests have also led to increased detection of Covid cases in Maharashtra. The state conducted over 70 lakh tests each April and May this year, resulting in positivity rates of 24.5 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively. Even when cases declined between November 2020 and January 2021, Maharashtra consistently ran over 18 lakh tests each month.
Kerala too clear increased testing during the second waveHaving done nearly 40 lakh tests in May. This led to a positivity rate of almost 24 percent compared to the national average of 15.43 percent. However, Kerala’s death rate (CFR) of 0.37 percent in May was much lower than the national average of 1.33 percent. On the flip side, Maharashtra recorded a CFR of 2.32 percent that same month.
Maha rise in rural areas
The main concern for Maharashtra is the spread of the infection from the more urbanized centers to the rural hinterland.
When the pandemic started in India last year, it was clear that Mumbai would be one of the hardest hit cities in the country. The Maharashtra government and Mumbai city government had argued that due to the large influx of international passengers, particularly from the Middle East, it would be off India announced a full lockdown in March 2020.
In the form of these international passengers, Mumbai suffered widespread infection from unidentified carriers of Covid-19 in the first weeks of March 2020. In September 2020, during the first wave when Maharashtra and Mumbai peaked with more than 35,000 and 2,500 Covid cases per day, the remote Amravati district was barely seeing 100 cases per day.
But in May 2021, during the second wave, Amravati recorded over 1,000 cases daily. At the beginning of February, the district had a positivity rate of 50 percent. This was shocking as, unlike Mumbai, it does not have an international airport, does not have a high population density, and public transport is relatively less crowded; and the influx of outsiders at home and abroad is limited.
As Amravati cases increased, officials initially thought the increase was due to the new mutated strain of the coronavirus. In addition, Amravati experienced a sudden change in weather in the first week of February, in which several people fell ill with the seasonal flu. Many of these patients have been asked to have a Covid test and most of them have tested positive along with their family members.
“We can clearly see that there is a mutation in the virus that is causing the sudden surge in cases,” Dr. Subhash Salunkhe, general director of health services in Maharashtra, previously said.
The well-known epidemiologist Dr. Raman Gangakhedkar said Maharashtra is a comparatively more urbanized state with an urban population of almost 42 percent, mobility and population density are high, which is the main reason for the faster spread of the infection. Also, the tests are higher in the state, he said.
Maharashtra recorded 11.4 lakh falls in May and 17.9 lakh falls in April. The number of deaths was 26,531 and 14,164, respectively.
Election campaign in Kerala?
During Covid 1.0, Kerala was one of the few states that did coped with the crisis pretty well. A robust health infrastructure and swift interventions at the government level helped keep the numbers under control.
With the second wave, however, it was a completely different story. Kerala saw a massive spike in cases and hospitals were overloaded. While it was a global phenomenon, Kerala also seemed to have reasons of its own.
Kerala voted in the first week of April. Political parties have been taking to the streets since the election was announced in early March. Covid-appropriate behavior was for a litter regardless of party colors. National and local leaders alike spoke before meetings that were attended in large numbers.
On March 15, Kerala reported 1,054 cases, the lowest since August 3, 2020. By the third week of March, 12,875 cases were reported, averaging 1,839 cases per day. By the fourth week, the total number of cases increased slightly to 13,424, with an average of 1,917 cases per day. When the election fever entered the final round, the state saw even larger rallies, the effects of which were visible by mid-April.
Kerala reported 4.46 lakh cases in April and 9.55 cases in May. That was an increase from just 65,000 cases in March. At its peak, the state was recording more than 30,000 new cases every day.
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Another factor driving the increase in cases is the higher population density in Keralas Urban areas. According to the 2011 Census, the state has a population density of 859 inhabitants per square kilometer. This may not seem exponential compared to many other states, but the real twist is when we look at the data on forest areas in Kerala.
According to the Forest Survey of India, Kerala has a forest area of 52.3 percent. This means that of the 38,852 square kilometers of the total geographic area of Kerala, 20,321 square kilometers fall under the category of forests that are almost uninhabited. Technically, this has a double impact on population density.
This is also a reason why Kerala is considered a large city stretching from Kasaragod to Thiruvananthapuram. The high level of interaction between this mostly urban population is considered to be one of the main reasons for the virus to spread.
High tests have also resulted in higher detection of positive cases. Kerala has one of the best testing rates in the country. The strategy of actively tracking contacts and conducting targeted tests also resulted in more positive cases being reported.
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