The R-factor, which indicates the rate at which the infection is spreading in the country, gives rise to renewed concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic, which has resulted in a sluggish decline in active cases of late Kerala and the northeastern states have emerged as regions of concern highlighted.
This is despite the still low number of new cases nationwide, according to an analysis by researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai.
According to sources, the R-factor rose slightly to 0.88 in late June after from mid-May to the end of last month at 0.78, the lowest level ever.
It does so amid the unlock process of many states trying to restore a semblance of normalcy as the deadly second wave that infected Lakhs and killed thousands during its peak in April-May shows signs of subsiding.
Sitabhra Sinha, who led the research team, said the “R” for India is still below one, so the number of active cases is declining much more slowly.
The same trend of slowing the decline in active cases can also be seen in many states.
“Kerala showed a brief surge in cases and its R continues to hover close to 1. The northeast region is a matter of great concern. Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and possibly Tripura show an increase in the number of cases,” Sinha said.
When the second wave of Covid-19 infection peaked, the total R-value in the country was estimated at 1.37 between March 9 and April 21.
According to the analysis, it fell to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1, and then to 1.10 between April 29 and May 7.
Between May 9th and May 11th, the R-value was estimated to be around 0.98. It then rose to 0.82 from May 14th to May 30th.
The R-value was 0.78 from May 15 to June 26 and 0.88 from June 20 to July 7.
In Kerala, the R-value is estimated to be around 1.10.
For the northeastern states, the R for Manipur is 1.07, Meghalaya 0.92, Tripura 1.15, Mizoram 0.86, Arunachal Pradesh 1.14, Sikkim 0.88, Assam 0.86.
The rising Covid-19 cases in Kerala, coupled with the recent Zika virus outbreak, are a concern for health officials as the southern state struggles to contain new infections every day.
The state had reported 14,087 new Covid cases and 109 deaths on Saturday, bringing the case count to 30,39,029 and the death toll to 14,380.
Active cases in the state touched 1.13.115.
While Kerala reported 19,760 positive cases on June 1 of this year, there was a slight decline for a week, with 9,313 new cases recorded on June 7.
However, two days later it shot back to 16,204.
The state has been reporting 11,000 to 13,000 cases a day for over a month.
Kerala Minister of Health Veena George had recently said that the numbers have increased due to certain unlocking measures and that they are expected to decrease.
“India’s R rose slightly to 0.88 from late June to late June, after hitting its lowest level ever at 0.78 from mid-May to late last month (since the pandemic began in March last year),” said India Sinha.
This means that every 100 infected people pass the infection on to 88 other people on average.
If R is less than 1, it means that the number of people newly infected is lower than the number of people infected in the previous period, which means that the incidence of the disease is decreasing, the lead researcher said.
“The smaller the value of R, the faster the disease regresses. Conversely, if R is greater than 1, the number of infected people increases in each round – technically we call this the epidemic phase. The greater the number than 1, the faster the disease spreads in the population, “added Sinha.
Earlier this month, Manindra Agarwal, a researcher on a government body tasked with modeling Covid-19 cases, said the third wave of coronavirus could peak between October and November if Covid’s behavior is not followed, but possibly half of the day cases registered during the second rise.
Agarwal also said the third wave could spread faster if a new virulent variant emerges.
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