After a break of nearly three weeks, the southwest monsoon is slated to resurface on July 8, M Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said on Sunday.
Rajeevan, who has been researching the southwest monsoon for more than three decades, found that predictive models are showing signs of revival, with increased rainfall on the south, west coast and east-central India from July 8 onwards.
He added that models also show the formation of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal by July 12.
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“Monsoon update: @ moesgoi models show signs of revival – increasing rainfall in the south, west coast and east-central India from July 8th. Models also show early on the formation of a weather system over BoB up to the 12th and the subsequent active monsoon phase”, Rajeevan tweeted.
After a good rainy season in the first two and a half weeks of June, the southwest monsoon had not progressed since June 19.
The monsoon is still arrive in Delhi, Haryana, Parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and West Rajasthan.
For over a week, monsoons did not rain in most of the country except in the foothills of the Himalayas.
In its forecast for July, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country as a whole will see good rainfall this month.
However, in parts of North India, some parts of the South Peninsula, Central, East and Northeast India, rains ranging from normal to below normal may occur.
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The Meteorological Bureau added that conditions are not favorable for the monsoon to progress through July 7 due to the lack of a weather system.
Noting that the northern limit of the southwest monsoon (NLM) currently runs through Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar, the IMD said, “The prevailing meteorological conditions, large-scale atmospheric features and the wind pattern predicted by dynamic models suggest that none favorable conditions are likely to develop for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and Punjab during the next 4-5 days. “
Therefore, it is very likely that subdued rains will continue to prevail over the northwest, central and western parts of Peninsula India for the next 4-5 days, she added.
(With entries from PTI)
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