In areas with low seroprevalence like Maharashtra and Kerala, festivals will make a difference, experts say. (Representative image: PTI)
Is the Christmas season an invitation to the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic? Rajdeep Sardesai, editor of India Today TV Consulting, spoke to leading experts on the subject. Here’s what they had to say:
Q: Look what is happening in Mumbai. Is it time people took a step back and said we weren’t going to be in big celebrations?
DR.HEMANT THACKER, CONSULTANT DOCTOR & CARDIOMETABOLIC SPECIALIST, BREACH CANDY, JASLOK, BHATIA AND RELIANCE HOSPITALS:
I have to compliment our local government on saving itself from the third rise and it is time people realized that you have many years to go to celebrate Dahi Handi. Ganpati resides in your hearts; You don’t have to go to a pandal. Burned child shies away from fire. The police have to be strict. I don’t want Maharashtra to take the Kerala path; the state rose during Bakrid and Onam. Let’s be patient. Let’s not move on to the third climb.
Q: Is there a connection between public festivals and an increase in Covid cases? Or have we got the required level of immunity and it doesn’t make any difference to be outside?
DR.GIRIDHAR BABU, PROFESSOR & LEADER, LIFE COURSE EPIDEMIOLOGY, PHFI:
We have many lessons from Kerala. But not in a negative sense. What we see in Kerala and what we will see in the rest of the country is a combination of seroprevalence and vaccination protection. The areas hardest hit when the third wave comes will be those with low seroprevalence and poor vaccination coverage. Kerala had a low seroprevalence and was prone to infection. We have to prioritize areas. Any crowding leads to the faster spread of infection.
Q: Are we heading for a third wave?
PROF. GAUTAM MENON, RESEARCH IN INFECTIOUS DISEASES MODELING & PROFESSOR OF PHYSICS AND BIOLOGY, ASHOKA UNIVERSITY:
It depends a lot on which part of the country you are talking about. In the north you have a high seroprevalence. In these areas, it is unlikely that you will experience a rapid increase. But in areas of low seroprevalence like Maharashtra and Kerala, festivals will make a difference.
Q: Is Kerala a lesson for the rest of the country?
DR.ANISH TS, ASOCIAL PROFESSOR, COMMUNITY MEDICINE, TRIVANDRUM MEDICAL COLLEGE:
Kerala is a case study, but not entirely in a negative sense. In Kerala, Shops opened during Onam, but there were no celebrations. We still paid a price with an additional daily case count of 10,000. But that is expected. We are vigilant.
Q: What do you say to people who bring religion in?
DR.SARIN, SENIOR PROFESSOR, INSTITUTE FOR LIVER AND BILARY SCIENCES:
Covid does not differentiate between Hindus and Muslims and young and old. It infects. The question is: do you want a third wave? And everyone will say no. We must learn the lessons from around the world.
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