According to a study by IIT researchers, the third wave of the coronavirus is likely to hit India in August and daily infections are likely to be between one and 1.5 lakh.
The research was carried out by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal of IIT Hyderabad and IIT Kanpur, respectively, who developed a mathematical model to predict the increase in Covid-19 cases during the third wave in India. Previously, the researchers had accurately predicted the severe second wave in April-May, in which thousands of people lost their lives.
The country could see its outbreak worsening as early as this month, with the next wave peaking with fewer than 100,000 infections per day in the best-case scenario, or nearly 150,000 in the worst-case scenario, research suggests.
States with high Covid-19 rates like Kerala and Maharashtra could “distort the picture,” said Professor Vidyasagar Bloomberg in an email.
Read: When does Covid end?
However, the researchers said the likely third wave will be weaker than the second wave, which saw over four lakh cases a day.
The researchers’ prognosis suggests that the government will accelerate the vaccination campaign, use surveillance methods to detect emerging hotspots, and increase genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.
In July, a Report published by SBI Research forecast the third wave in India by August, which will peak in September. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) scientist Professor Samiran Panda told India Today TV that the third wave is expected to come by the end of August and India can experience one lakh of Covid-19 cases every day.
There are currently 4,13,718 active Covid-19 cases in India with a recovery rate of 97.35 percent. However, southern states such as Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra report high virus cases every day. While these states account for 83.12 percent of the new virus cases, Kerala alone is responsible for 51.65 percent of the new cases.
On the vaccine front, the government has administered over 47 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses. However, so far only seven percent of the population are fully vaccinated.
Also read: Third wave of Covid-19 likely in August, India will see 1 lakh cases a day: top ICMR scientists
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