Third Covid wave may peak in October, children at risk: Govt panel


A panel set up by the central government warned in its latest report that a third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic could peak around October. The public health system should be better prepared for children who may be at similar risk as adults.

In the first two nationwide waves of the Covid-19 pandemic, children were considered a slightly slower risk population based on the evidence available.

A report from a panel of experts from the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), set up by the Union’s Ministry of the Interior, reads: “Pediatrics [control] Facilities such as doctors, staff, equipment such as ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere near what is required in the event that large numbers of children become infected. “

How can the third wave of Covid affect children?

According to the report, there is no direct evidence that children in India will be more severely affected in the expected third wave. However, the report suggests that children remain a cause for concern as they are still not vaccinated.

“Many health professionals initially raised concerns about the possibility of a third wave affecting children more than adults. However, recent scientific data suggest otherwise, ”the report said.

“The Indian Academy of Pediatrics has determined that there is no biological evidence that the current and the new Delta Plus variants affect children more than adults,” said the press release.

“The Task Force of the Lancet Covid-19 Commission India has also concluded that there is currently no evidence that an expected third wave is specifically targeting children,” the report said.

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Then why worry?

The report said: “But according to public health experts, there is cause for concern, if not panic, that children under the age of 18 in India remain unvaccinated.”

“Also, the existing pediatric healthcare facilities are not robust enough to treat children on a large scale. Epidemics have the biggest impact on a country’s future, the Lancet Covid-19 Commission India Task Force report also points out that while children have milder illnesses and low mortality rates compared to adults, people with underlying comorbidities might be at higher risk have “, says the report.

What does the report say about vaccinating children?

The study, entitled “Third Wave Preparedness: Children Vulnerability” examined the possible effects of Covid-19 on children and the strategies required to deal with the pandemic.

  • The panel recommended that vaccination in children should be a top priority in dealing with the expected third wave of Covid.
  • Vaccination in younger children and children with comorbidities should be an immediate future priority. However, vaccination in children should be carried out with great caution.
  • Teachers and school staff across the country need to be vaccinated as a vital workforce.
  • Determination of the rehabilitation needs of Covid-affected children – both in the short and long term.
  • Hospitals should be well equipped with a comprehensive child care model.
  • If a child is positive, there should be a place where hospitals can also accept the parents, and vice versa.

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How many daily Covid cases can be expected in the third wave?

The panel, citing a recent study, said India could experience “6 lakh cases per day in the third wave” if the country’s vaccination rate does not improve.

It says: “According to a study recently carried out by professors and alumni of Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) in collaboration with Nirma University, the vaccination rate in India is currently 3.2 percent, India may in the next (third) wave 6 Experiencing lakh cases per day, “the report said.

Will vaccination help?

The report said, “But if the government’s proposal to increase this rate five times (1 million doses per day), India will see only 25 percent of the cases (seen in the second wave) during the peak of the third wave . “

“The same study, titled Pattern Recognition: Prediction of Covid Third Wave in India Using Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning Models,” predicts that this run-of-the-mill vaccination strategy can infect Covid infections by 85 percent during the peak of the third wave, the only way out is from this pandemic, “says the report.

The report said that only increasing vaccination rates in the country could seriously challenge the “emergence of a third wave”.

“The emergence of a third wave could be seriously questioned by the expansion of vaccination, but only around 7.6 percent (10.4 crore) are fully vaccinated.” According to the Covid vaccination dashboard of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, As of August 2, 2021, 47, 85,44, 144 (over 47 crore) people were given at least one dose of Covid vaccine, “the report said.

“Predicting the third wave of Covid in India using time series forecasting with deep learning models predict that this rampant vaccination strategy can infect Covid infections by 85 percent during the peak of the third wave. So vaccination is the only way out of this pandemic. Said the report.

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Will the Delta Plus variant be the driver of the third wave of Covid?

In its report, the panel said there was no direct evidence of a link Delta Plus variant as the main driver of the third wave of Covid-19 in India. However, there remains a cause for concern, the report said.

“The Delta Plus variant was created due to the mutation in B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) that caused the fatal second surge in India. This new worrying variant is a subline of the Delta variant that has acquired a spike protein mutation ‘K417N’ that is also found in the beta variant (first discovered in South Africa), “the report said.

“Three patients have died of this variant in India so far, one an eighty-year-old with comorbidities (Maharashtra) and two not vaccinated (Madhya Pradesh).”

“According to India’s SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), a consortium of 28 laboratories hired to perform genome sequencing by the Department of Health and Family Welfare, the Delta Plus variant has three properties of concern – increased portability, stronger Binding in receptors of lung cells and a potential reduction in the monoclonal antibody response, “the report said.

The panel’s report states that there is currently “not enough evidence” to classify the Delta Plus variant as more dangerous than the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

“While there is currently insufficient evidence to classify the Delta Plus variant as more dangerous than Delta, according to the NCDC, on August 2, 2021, this variant was discovered in 70 cases in 16 states out of the 58,240 samples that have been sequenced in India so far” the report says.

“According to the National Center for Disease Control (NCDC), these states range from Maharashtra (23), Madhya Pradesh (11), Tamil Nadu (10), Chandigarh (4), Punjab (2), Gujarat (2), Uttar Pradesh (2) ), Karnataka (3), Kerala (3) and Telangana (2). “

“The Ministry of Health has classified this Delta Plus variant B.1.617.2.1 of SARS COV-2 as a ‘Variant of Concern’ (VOC) and has given the states instructions to take containment measures immediately.15 Together with India, this variant has also been used in the USA, UK, Portugal, Switzerland, Japan, Poland, Nepal, China and Russia were discovered, “the MHA panel (the Interior Ministry) said in its report.

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