Covid cases in India could peak by the end of January and be over by February, an expert says. (Image credit: AP).
With India reporting over 1.94.720 new Covid cases in the past 24 hours, Rajdeep Sardesai, editor of India Today TV Consulting, speaks to Professor Bhramar Mukherjee, data scientist and epidemiologist, University of Michigan about when India is ideally at a peak in infections could experience.
The five states with the highest recorded cases are Maharashtra with 46,723 cases, followed by Delhi with 27,561 cases, West Bengal with 22,155 cases, Tamil Nadu with 17,934 cases and Karnataka with 21,390 cases.
We see Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal to peak early: @BhramarBioStat, Epidemiologist.#News today With @sardesairajdeep | #Coronavirus # Covid19 #omicron #third wave pic.twitter.com/xQUGAJWElL
– IndiaToday (@IndiaToday) January 12, 2022
Q) When will this wave peak? We’re looking at about 2 lakh falls … how high could it go? Do you see the trajectory according to the modeling you did?
Dr. Bhramar Mukherjee, data scientist and epidemiologist at the University of Michigan
What we see is a little comforting from a public perspective. We saw states like Delhi, Maharashtra and West Bengal that bloomed early and peaked early. In the next seven or ten days the growth trajectory will slow down.
Delhi had a base reproduction number of 2 and it has dropped to 1.4. I hope the test positive rate has decreased really slightly. I am confident that some of the states will peak in the next seven days. India could peak in late January.
For India this is always the case and we know that it is like having multiple nations in one nation and usually a cascade of peaks comes through different regions, states and union territories.
FULL INTERVIEW
Q) By and large, are we seeing this omicron wave peaking very quickly and falling very quickly?
This is what it looks like. Given Omicron’s high portability, it’s really ripping through the population and spreading like wildfire. It also means that it cannot be kept for a long period of time.
Q) The positivity rate has increased. Should we look at the test positive rate or should we look at the hospitalization rate. Should the focus be on hospital stays?
Ideally, in a utopian world with perfect dates, I totally agree with you that we really need to focus on hospitalization rates. However, we do not have consistent data on hospital admissions across India. If we have that, the hospitalization rate for Covid, then I totally agree with you. But we don’t have this data.
Q) Many states where cases have peaked are electoral battlefields with low vaccination rates. Do you think there is a cause for concern?
Vaccination is key. So many people are sick right now, but thanks to God or public health or vaccines, very few have to go to the hospital. At the moment, the situation looks very different from the second wave, as India’s immunity wall has changed significantly due to natural infections plus vaccination.
If you look at data from other countries, many people who were hospitalized with Omicron are unvaccinated. So I urge people to get vaccinated in states where there are elections. People should also adopt Covid-appropriate behavior.
Q) Do you think this wave will be over by the end of February or will it extend into March?
I think the wave will be over in February. However, all models are littered with assumptions and depend on human behavior. We don’t know what an event like Gangasagar mela would do. The number and statistics, however state that the wave may peak in January and end in February.
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