Too early to say Delhi, Mumbai have hit their Covid-19 third wave peak: Top govt scientist | Exclusive


In an exclusive interview with India Today, Dr. Samiran Panda said it is too early to confirm whether Delhi and Mumbai have peaked in the country’s third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. dr Samiran Panda is Chief of Epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research.

“We have to wait another two weeks before saying that Delhi and Mumbai have peaked and the worst is over. We can’t see a trend like that in a few days. We cannot simply say this based on a drop in cases and positivity [rate],” he said.

dr Samiran Panda added that in the two major metropolitan areas, the proportion of Omicron and Delta cases of Covid-19 are about 80 and 20 percent, respectively.

He also clarified that different states of India are currently at different stages of the pandemic.

COVID WILL BECOME ENDEMIC IN MARCH?

according to dr Samiran Panda could become endemic to Covid-19 in India after March 11 if certain conditions are met.

An endemic disease is a disease that is persistently present in a population or region with relatively low prevalence. It differs from a pandemic, which is a disease characterized by a sudden increase in cases around the world.

Covid-19 could become endemic after March 11 if the following conditions are met, says Dr. Samiran Panda: We cannot let go of our vigilance. No new variant may be created. Omicron must replace Delta variant.

dr Samiran Panda said mathematical projections show that the Omicron wave will last three months from December 11 in India. “We’re going to see some breathing space from March 11,” he said.

NEW TEST STRATEGY

Last week ICMR issued an advisory saying contacts of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 do not have to be tested unless they fall into the high risk category. When asked about this, Dr. Panda: “The ICMR changed the testing strategy due to epidemiological changes of the virus and because the pandemic has changed its course.”

He added: “We’ve never asked states not to test a lot – there’s never been a directive to reduce the number of tests. We called for more targeted and targeted testing. The epidemic has changed its character and therefore the testing and management strategy will also change.”

dr Samiran Panda added that providing home testing guidelines in local languages ​​would send the right message.

SERIOUSNESS OF THE DISEASE

dr Samiran Panda said Covid-19 infections are being studied in hospitals to understand the severity of the disease, particularly the Omicron variant.

He added: “Genomic sequencing is a dynamic phenomenon. But genomic sequencing of a cadaver to understand if he had omicron is a simplistic argument. Many patients die from underlying diseases.”

On the antiviral drug molnupiravir, which has been ruled out from the ICMR protocol for clinical management for Covid-19, he said: “It can be given to unvaccinated patients. There is no policy to give it to pregnant women, breastfeeding women and children and therefore it is not in the protocol.”

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