The India Today – Axis My India has predicted 33-43 seats for the BJP in Manipur, 4-8 seats each for the Congress, NPP and NPF and 0-7 seats for others.
BJP is likely to secure 41 per cent of Manipur’s total polled votes, followed by 18 per cent for the Congress, 16 per cent for the NPP, 8% for NPF and others 17.
In 2017, the BJP had managed to secure 36.3 per cent of the total votes polled in Manipur, while the Congress bagged 35.1 per cent of the vote. Naga People’s Front had secured 7.2 per cent, and National People’s Party had managed 5.1 per cent of the polled votes.
The final phase of UP polls today brought the curtain down on the marathon Assembly elections in five states, spanning almost a month. UP and Manipur voted in multiple phases while Uttarakhand, Goa, and Punjab voted in a single phase.
Manipur voted in two phases – on February 28 and March 5 – to elect 60 MLAs to the state Assembly. A record voter turnout of 88.63% in the first phase and 76.04% in the second phase decided the fate of 265 candidates. A repoll was ordered at 12 booths in the state’s five Assembly constituencies after the first phase based on information received and reported by respective Returning Officers, a statement from the Election Commission said.
In Manipur, a state where candidates frequently shift political loyalties, it is difficult to keep up with the political alliances. Several influential leaders contested the election as Independent candidates could divide the vote shares of parties.
“Voters follow candidates” is a popular saying in Manipur, where clan and tribal loyalties play a crucial role in determining who people vote for. Parties campaigned hard to woo voters with baskets of poll promises. The BJP, in its manifesto, has promised two-wheelers to meritorious female college students, a raise in the monthly pension for senior citizens to Rs 1,000 and a Rs 100-crore start-up fund. The Congress has vowed to provide 50,000 new jobs annually, one-third of reservations for women in all government jobs and work toward repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).
The BJP hopes to retain the state where it came to power in 2017 with the support of three regional parties, despite Congress winning the highest number of seats – 28.
So Read: | 76% voter turnout in final phase of Manipur polls; counting of votes on March 10
The NPP, NPF and JDU – members of the BJP-led coalition government – have been vocal about their dissatisfaction with the N Biren Singh government. The three have claimed they will “play kingmaker” this election.
The influence of the underground armed groups is also crucial. The Kuki National Organisation, an armed underground group, has appealed for votes for BJP.
POLL VIOLENCE
Violent clashes, booth capturing and heated arguments were reported from Manipur during the first phase of polling in the state on February 28. Security forces fired blank rounds to control the crowd at the New Keithelmanbi polling station in Kangpokpi district after the Congress accused the BJP of attempting to capture the booth. Nobody was injured in the incident.
At the Kabo Leikai polling station in the Wangkhei constituency, voters alleged proxy voting.
Tension was reported in Chief Minister N Biren Singh’s constituency, Heeingang, after the Congress candidate complained about his agents not being allowed to participate in the polling process.
Five-time MLA and an NPP candidate from Wanghei Y Erabot Singh claimed that the ruling BJP was behind proxy voting. “Proxy voting and booth capturing are habitual. In hill areas voting is done even before polling day,” he said. Singh jumped ship in 2016 to join the BJP, which he quit in a month to join Conrad Sangma’s NPP.
At least one person was injured in a clash between two political parties in the Churachandpur district and an Electronic Voting Machine was also reportedly damaged.
So Read: | India Today – Axis My India exit poll results for elections in 5 states to be out today
Congress workers were accused of vandalizing a BJP polling booth in Langthabal constituency’s Kakwa area in the Imphal West district. A vehicle of an NPP candidate was damaged by supporters of a rival group in the Keirao assembly seat.
The police registered a case against an angry mob who allegedly engaged in “election offense and damage with common intention by using firearms” in the Imphal East district.
Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh claimed that a man realized that his vote had already been cast when he went to exercise his franchise in the Churachandpur district.
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“Dennis Lallienzuol, a young resident of Churachandpur, went to the polling booth today to exercise his democratic right, only to find that his vote had already been cast! This not an isolated incident of malpractice,” he tweeted.
IMPORTANT SEATS
Andro, Wangkhei, Sagolband, Moirang, Saikul, and Bishenpur are some of the crucial seats to watch out for this election.
Andro, with four candidates in the fray, was classed as a ‘red alert’ constituency by the Election Commission over apprehension of money distribution and law and order problems.
Shootouts and street violence were reported in the constituency between NPP and BJP supporters on February 19. BJP’s Thounajoum Shyam Kumar, NPP’s L Sanjoy Singh and Congress’ Keisham Ninghthemjao Singh have criminal cases against them.
Wangkhei is a straight fight between the BJP and the NPP. The constituency reported massive protests by BJP workers over the allocation of tickets after the party chose to field Okram Henry Singh, nephew of Congress leader O Ibobi Singh, who joined the BJP after winning the seat on a Congress ticket in 2017. Despite being made a Minister in the N Biren Singh government, his election was declared null and void by the Manipur High Court in April 2021.
Yumkham Erabot Singh, who was finally declared the winner, contested this election on an NPP ticket. Erabot had contested on a Congress ticket in 2012 and 2017 on a BJP ticket.
The Congress appeared to have bowed out of this competition after it fielded Rajkumar Priyobarta Singh, who had managed to pull just 149 votes in the 2017 polls on a Trinamool Congress ticket.
The Sagolband constituency is a two-way fight between the BJP and the JD(U). Congress candidate Moirangthem Momo Singh is a new entry.
The BJP candidate from this constituency, Rajkumar Imo Singh, is the son-in-law of Chief Minister N Biren Singh. A former Congress MLA, he joined the BJP in 2017 despite coming from a family of Congress loyalists – his father RK Jaichandra Singh was Manipur’s seventh Chief Minister, a Union minister in Rajiv Gandhi’s cabinet and a Rajya Sabha MP.
The Moirang constituency has quite an election going on – former BJP MLA Pukhrem Sharatchandra contested this election on a Congress ticket while ex-Congress leader Mairembam Prithviraj Singh contested as a BJP candidate. The third corner of the fight was NPP’s Thongam Shanti Singh. Moirang is also one of the constituencies where the sitting BJP MLA was denied a ticket in favor of a new candidate.
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Saikul is a constituency where complicated family linkages are at play. Congress candidate Lhingkim Haokip is the daughter of sitting MLA and BJP candidate Yamthong Haokip. Kimneo Haokip Hangshing of the Kuki People’s Alliance is the daughter of BJP MLA and candidate from neighboring Saitu constituency, Ngamthang Haokip.
All the candidates are from the Kuki tribe, making clan affiliations and the threat of the underground Kuki armed groups important factors in the constituency. Prior to the polls, when India Today visited the constituency, locals had said that the “villages will hold a meeting” and the village chiefs would decide who should be voted for.
A traditional stronghold of the Congress, Bishenpur is a fight between the BJP, the Congress and the JD(U). Veteran Congress leader and five-time MLA Govindas Konthoujam, who defected to the BJP in 2021, is the saffron party’s candidate. Govindas, if speculations are to be believed, could be a contender for the post of chief minister as an alternative to the incumbent chief minister. Congress candidate Ningthoujam Joykumar Singh switched over from the BJP after being denied a ticket.
Votes will be counted on March 10.
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