Mamata Banerjee, who is serving her third consecutive term as chief minister of West Bengal, is a woman on a mission. No longer satisfied with her party – Trinamool Congress – being confined to just one state only, the fiery leader has begun working steadily and meticulously on her 2024 national dream, writes veteran journalist Jayanta Ghoshal in his new book, “Mamata Beyond 2021”. To realize this, she must get several states and their electorate rallying for her.
To unseat Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024, Mamata Banerjee has a long, uphill road ahead that she must carefully traverse. She will have to win over regional parties, one state at a time, in order to be the prime ministerial face of the opposition just two years from now.
Narendra Modi, riding a wave of unprecedented magnification and acceptance, is a difficult rival to trounce. In the last general election in 2019, the BJP, extremely desperate to create a stronghold in Bengal, had registered a big win, sending 18 MPs to the Lok Sabha from the state – in 2014, it had managed to secure only two seats.
The former Union minister and three-time chief minister of Bengal will have to consolidate her party more strongly in Bengal now than ever as she painstakingly curates her 2024 roadmap.
THE ROAD AHEAD
Analyzing Banerjee’s 2024 blueprint in his new book, Jayanta Ghoshal writes, “Mamata Banerjee’s sights are now set on Delhi, the seat of power. What lies ahead is 2024.”
“It is not a road strewn with petals, but Mamata is much less impetuous now and much more experienced. She knows her strengths and, equally, knows her weaknesses, where her fault lines lie.”
“So, this time her roadmap is far less romantic or utopian than in 2019. It is paved with clear-eyed, real-life politics, not quixotic goals.”
The Trinamool Congress chairperson is now slowly adjusting to the new ways of politics. She is fast learning the new rules of the game and beating the masters in their own game – the 2021 Bengal election is proof enough.
NEW WAYS OF INDIAN POLITICS
Narendra Modi came to power in 2014 with a thumbing majority. Outlining what Modi did right in the days and months leading to the Lok Sabha election, Jayanta Ghoshal writes, “Narendra Modi was the first to use the power of different kinds of media when campaigning for the 2014 election. Several advertising and public relations companies who specialize in image-building through these and other means were engaged for this.”
What Modi did in 2014 with political strategist Prashant Kishor planning the Bharatiya Janata Party’s election campaign, Mamata Banerjee achieved the same in West Bengal in 2021. Ghoshal argues that Bengal victory presented Mamata Banerjee as the only politician in the country who can take on Narendra Modi .
Ghoshal points to a contrast in Mamata Banerjee’s political transformation. Once averse to the “corporatization of the political party”, Mamata Banerjee hired Prashant Kishor, who had a reputation for running election campaigns with corporate zeal. In the bygone era, Mamata Banerjee was passionate about projecting her Trinamool Congress as a “party of the poor”.
BUILDING BRAND EQUITY
With Prashant Kishor as her advisor in the Bengal election, Mamata Banerjee nurtured her brand equity as the “daughter of Bengal” while launching attacks on the BJP, branding it as a party of the outsiders. Her campaign succeeded as Mamata Banerjee targeted PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah – two of the tallest BJP leaders and hailing from Gujarat.
The handspun white saree, rubber sandals, and humble living quarters added to Mamata Banerjee’s political appeal, Ghoshal writes.
“With Prashant Kishor’s help, Mamata Banerjee built a clear strategy to counteract the BJP’s thrust. Just as the perception of Mahatma Gandhi that existed in his time would not have been without his particular attire, Mamata Banerjee too built a brand equity”
EMPLOYING SOCIAL MEDIA
The BJP was “extraordinarily successful in spreading its messages through WhatsApp” in Bengal during the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Ghoshal says.
Back then, Mamata Banerjee was yet to realize the full potential of social media and, according to the journalist, “not properly understood” this strategy of the BJP.
“But in 2021, with Prashant Kishor in her team, she was prepared to counter anti-Trinamool messaging, especially its reliance on fake news.”
By the time the 2021 polls came around, “Trinamool had worked out its media and social media strategies too”, he said.
GOING NATIONAL
Now, Mamata Banerjee is going national to build her campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Trinamool Congress contested the Goa Assembly election. But Mamata Banerjee has a challenge of taking her party to the majority of 28 states and eight Union Territories to realize her 2024 dream.
Ghoshal says Mamata Banerjee “intends to consolidate the Trinamool Congress even more strongly in West Bengal first” before expanding in other big states.
“Mamata’s first target is to retrieve the eighteen seats while holding on to others,” Ghoshal says.
“Instead of a euphoric and unrealistic expansion plan for Trinamool, the focus is on gradually making Mamata Banerjee acceptable as a national alternative to Narendra Modi,” Jayanta Ghoshal says.
MAGNIFYING BJP’S FAILURES
The way forward for Mamata Banerjee is to magnify the BJP’s failures in the states and at the Centre. Ghoshal says that the two years of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy, and a vertical movement in unemployment numbers are “opening up space for Mamata Banerjee to become a challenger. Even regional leaders are beginning to repose their faith in her “.
But is this enough to bring Mamata Banerjee to power at the Center in 2024?
“Many BJP and RSS leaders now believe underestimating Mamata in 2024 – as Narendra Modi and Amit Shah did in 2021 – would be a blunder. So, Mamata Banerjee will have to take many more innovative steps to make herself a widely acceptable leader who can be an alternative to Narendra Modi,” Ghosal sums up in his 222-page book.
“Far from being inactive on this front, she is preparing quietly. Her mission ‘New Delhi 2024’ will be worth watching,” he predicts.
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